Indo-US nuclear deal – Will it be binding on the possible new governments?

Unfortunate rider to the Indo-US nuclear deal approval by the US Senate foreign relations committee is going to make India unhappy. The deal was approved by 19-2 margin. But, the condition is being stoppage of all transfer of technology, material and equipments to India in the event of India carry out a nuclear test. It also added a clause that the deal will be subjected to the provisions of the Hyde Act and other US laws. The Indo-US nuclear deal is introduced today in the US House of Representatives.

Will US also prevent the transfer of nuclear materials and technology from other NSG countries? Will India agree for such harsh conditions?

Does these conditions override the provisions of the 123 Agreement?

What are the chances of Manmohan Singh and Bush finally signing the deal during the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to US?

Moreover, how both the governments will ensure that the deal (if signed) is binding on the possible new governments after the elections in US and India.

Nuclear Power Worldwide - Status

Nuclear power, in step with growing global demand for energy, will continue expanding into the next two decades, says the 2008 edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period to 2030, just published by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The report is produced every year since 1981, provides high and low projections - very general growth trends whose validity must constantly be subjected to critical review, the report states. The IAEA provides energy planning assistance to its 145 member states.

The low projection assumes that all nuclear capacity currently under construction or in the development pipeline gets constructed and current policies, such as phase-outs, remain unchanged. In such a scenario there would be growth in nuclear electricity production capacity to 473 gigawatt electrical (GW[e]) from the current 372 GW[e]. (A gigawatt is one billion watts). Rising costs of natural gas and coal, coupled with energy supply security and environmental constraints are among factors contributing to nuclear´s growth, said Hans-Holger Rogner, Head of the IAEA´s Nuclear Energy Planning and Economic Studies Section.

Mr. Rogner said that new environmental constraints such as entry-into-force of the Kyoto Protocol and the European carbon trading scheme mean there is now a real financial benefit to avoiding greenhouse gas emissions, adding to the appeal of low-carbon electricity generation, including nuclear power and renewables. The complete nuclear power chain - including uranium mining, reactor construction and waste disposal - emits only 3 – 24 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour, about the same as wind and hydro power, and well below coal, oil and natural gas.

The IAEA´s high projection, based on government and corporate announcements about longer-term plans for nuclear investments, as well as potential new national policies, such as responses to new international environmental agreements to combat climate change, estimates nuclear power electricity capacity would grow to 748 GW[e] by 2030.

From 2007 to 2008 the report says, total global electricity generation rose 4.8% while nuclear power´s share dropped to 14% from a nearly steady rate of 16 - 17 per cent between 1986 and 2005.

India prevails: India gets the crucial NSG waiver for Indo-US nuclear deal

International diplomacy of highest possible order was at display today at Vienna. India could clinch the much awaited waiver from the Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG). The two countries, Ireland and Austria were convinced by the Indo-US joint diplomacy and India makes history in the nuclear era. The 34-year old nuclear isolation has ended for India. The agreement now has to be cleared by the US Congress.

Along with the waiver and clinching the deal, the responsibility of India increases manifold. The world today accepted that: India has voluntarily declared moratorium on nuclear tests; India is a very responsible country in terms of nuclear applications, and it is a very big supporter of nuclear power, which is environmental friendly.

India should live up to the expectations of the NSG countries and others, who look up to India as an emerging super power in this part of the world.

Indo-US nuclear deal - US should remain committed

At the recent Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG) meeting, the US proposal seeking blanket exemption to India from the 45-member Nuclear Supplier’s Group for procuring nuclear fuel and hi-tech nuclear components/technology has run into rough weather. The issue will again be taken up in the NSG meeting to be held on September 4, 2008. The NSG may impose additional conditions which may not find favor with India. The responsibility now rests with American Administration to get the existing draft approved in the next NSG meeting without any compromise from Indian side.

Meantime, it is reported that a new NSG waiver draft is being worked out, keeping in perspective the concerns expressed by some of the NSG countries. The concerns seem to be: the status of the deal in case of any more nuclear weapons tests; transfer of reprocessing and enrichment technology to India, and periodic review of the waiver conditions, which may be seen as “intrusive” or discriminatory by India.

How India is going to manoeuvre the deal through this “conditions” is to be seen. Will there be enough time for getting the deal endorsed finally by the US Congress which begins its session September 8, 2008. US presidential pool is fast approaching and India expects that the US should stand committed to complete all the formalities pertaining to the deal, even after the presidential election.

Indo-US nuclear deal

The India-specific IAEA Safeguards, after clearance by the IAEA Board of Governors was forwarded to the US administration for getting the clearance from the US Congress, followed by US proposal seeking blanket exemption to India to approach 45-member Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG) for nuclear fuel.

There are non-proliferation loyalists and NGOs in US trying to impose conditions to restrain India from continuing with its N-weapons programme. The non-proliferation specialists remarked that unlike 178 other countries, India has not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and it is one of the three countries which have not signed the NTP. The group is not for India getting the rights and privileges of civil nuclear trade that have been reserved only for members in good standing under the NPT.

The world community should remember that India is the only country which is pursuing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, including nuclear power in a big way. The country has been behaving very responsibly as a nuclear weapon state, and is in good standing even without signing NPT.

The success of the efforts put-in by the Indian government in getting clearance from its Parliament for the deal now depends on the Bush administration’s ability to get the required exemptions for India to nuclear trade, from the NSG. There are some smaller NSG countries voicing their reservations on the India-specific waivers. But there is broad support from major NSG countries for the waiver, and hence consensus for the waiver may be easy to obtain in the meeting to be held on September 2, 2008. Finally, India may be able to operationalise the Indo-US nuclear deal.

Nuclear Fuel Reserve Proposal

The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) launched in 2006 calls for a dedicated, low-enriched uranium (LEU) stockpile to be owned and administered by the IAEA. The bank would aim to provide States with assurances of nuclear fuel supply and would seek to address potential disruptions of fuel shipments for nuclear power reactors. This is one among several multilateral nuclear approaches currently under consideration, including one by the Russian Federation to set up an LEU reserve under IAEA auspices in Russia. Matters of the fuel bank’s location, organization, and conditions for access are left to the Agency and its Member States to decide upon.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) recently pledged $10 million towards the fuel bank proposal. The UAE commitment was presented to IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei on 1 August by Mr. Hamad Al Kaabi, UAE Special Representative for International Nuclear Cooperation. The UAE contribution comes on the heels of three previous financial donations made by NTI, the United States and Norway, bringing the total committed amount for the nuclear fuel bank to $115 million.

This marks another important milestone towards supporting mechanisms for non-discriminatory, non-political assurances of supply of fuel for nuclear power plants, says IAEA Chief Dr. ElBaradei. A good move indeed.

Is India ready to operationalise the Indo-US nuclear deal?

In all probability, US President Bush will push the deal through the all-powerful US Congress. NSG countries must be ready with their offers to cash in on the sudden demand for the nuclear fuel and nuclear-related hi-tech requirements from India.

Is India ready with the regulatory infrastructure requirements for the rush of nuclear technology, in all forms? There are issues like legislation for private participation in nuclear power sector, law for public protection in case of any nuclear incidents/accidents, assigning responsibilities for nuclear and radiological safety, out-sourcing the required expertise, etc. The biggest foreseeable issue will be generating specially trained man power, with expertise in nuclear technology and radiological safety.

The public, in general are ignorant about these issues. Public Awareness Programs should aim at these issues, and the programs should be conducted nation-wide so as to mobilize public support for the nuclear technology.