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Friday, March 1, 2013

Cancer risk estimates by WHO - Fukushima radioactivity releases


This has reference to the News Report (Fukushima Disaster raised Cancer Risk - WHO...) in Times of India dated March 1, 2013.

With all the due respect for the WHO and the team of experts who have done the risk estimations, it can be stated that: 

1. The releases from Fukushima are very much lower than the Chernobyl. 

2. The estimated number of cancer incidences from the Chernobyl releases, predicted using the similar line of calculations followed by WHO, never occurred and far from reality. 

3. The very concept of Linear No-Threshold (LNT) approach followed for the risk estimations is not  experimentally proved and hence should not be used for actual risk calculations. 

4. The LNT concept can only be used for general optimization of protection.  

5. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), in its latest recommendations, clearly stated that: Risk factors for carcinogenesis calculated using LNT approach have a high degree of uncertainty. This is particularly so for the calculation of cancer risk by adding up of the calculated low levels of individual doses to the members of the public (which is a small fraction of the natural radiation dose received by all of us), in situations of environmental releases in accidents. This is exactly the situation encountered in Fukushima nuclear accident. 

6. The ICRP Recommendations (ICRP-103, page no. 313) is the backbone of Radiological Protection   world-wide, and it clearly states that the adding up of small estimated doses over large populations and calculating the cancer risk is using LNT approach is NOT A VALID PROCEDURE. 

Based on the above facts, it is not advised to give such a publicity to the news item, which will only harm the nuclear industry. 

For further reading pl see: 
http://healthcare.financialexpress.com/inimaging2011jul/inimaging2011july09.shtml