Indo-US nuclear deal - US should remain committed

At the recent Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG) meeting, the US proposal seeking blanket exemption to India from the 45-member Nuclear Supplier’s Group for procuring nuclear fuel and hi-tech nuclear components/technology has run into rough weather. The issue will again be taken up in the NSG meeting to be held on September 4, 2008. The NSG may impose additional conditions which may not find favor with India. The responsibility now rests with American Administration to get the existing draft approved in the next NSG meeting without any compromise from Indian side.

Meantime, it is reported that a new NSG waiver draft is being worked out, keeping in perspective the concerns expressed by some of the NSG countries. The concerns seem to be: the status of the deal in case of any more nuclear weapons tests; transfer of reprocessing and enrichment technology to India, and periodic review of the waiver conditions, which may be seen as “intrusive” or discriminatory by India.

How India is going to manoeuvre the deal through this “conditions” is to be seen. Will there be enough time for getting the deal endorsed finally by the US Congress which begins its session September 8, 2008. US presidential pool is fast approaching and India expects that the US should stand committed to complete all the formalities pertaining to the deal, even after the presidential election.

Indo-US nuclear deal

The India-specific IAEA Safeguards, after clearance by the IAEA Board of Governors was forwarded to the US administration for getting the clearance from the US Congress, followed by US proposal seeking blanket exemption to India to approach 45-member Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG) for nuclear fuel.

There are non-proliferation loyalists and NGOs in US trying to impose conditions to restrain India from continuing with its N-weapons programme. The non-proliferation specialists remarked that unlike 178 other countries, India has not signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and it is one of the three countries which have not signed the NTP. The group is not for India getting the rights and privileges of civil nuclear trade that have been reserved only for members in good standing under the NPT.

The world community should remember that India is the only country which is pursuing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, including nuclear power in a big way. The country has been behaving very responsibly as a nuclear weapon state, and is in good standing even without signing NPT.

The success of the efforts put-in by the Indian government in getting clearance from its Parliament for the deal now depends on the Bush administration’s ability to get the required exemptions for India to nuclear trade, from the NSG. There are some smaller NSG countries voicing their reservations on the India-specific waivers. But there is broad support from major NSG countries for the waiver, and hence consensus for the waiver may be easy to obtain in the meeting to be held on September 2, 2008. Finally, India may be able to operationalise the Indo-US nuclear deal.

Nuclear Fuel Reserve Proposal

The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) launched in 2006 calls for a dedicated, low-enriched uranium (LEU) stockpile to be owned and administered by the IAEA. The bank would aim to provide States with assurances of nuclear fuel supply and would seek to address potential disruptions of fuel shipments for nuclear power reactors. This is one among several multilateral nuclear approaches currently under consideration, including one by the Russian Federation to set up an LEU reserve under IAEA auspices in Russia. Matters of the fuel bank’s location, organization, and conditions for access are left to the Agency and its Member States to decide upon.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) recently pledged $10 million towards the fuel bank proposal. The UAE commitment was presented to IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei on 1 August by Mr. Hamad Al Kaabi, UAE Special Representative for International Nuclear Cooperation. The UAE contribution comes on the heels of three previous financial donations made by NTI, the United States and Norway, bringing the total committed amount for the nuclear fuel bank to $115 million.

This marks another important milestone towards supporting mechanisms for non-discriminatory, non-political assurances of supply of fuel for nuclear power plants, says IAEA Chief Dr. ElBaradei. A good move indeed.

Is India ready to operationalise the Indo-US nuclear deal?

In all probability, US President Bush will push the deal through the all-powerful US Congress. NSG countries must be ready with their offers to cash in on the sudden demand for the nuclear fuel and nuclear-related hi-tech requirements from India.

Is India ready with the regulatory infrastructure requirements for the rush of nuclear technology, in all forms? There are issues like legislation for private participation in nuclear power sector, law for public protection in case of any nuclear incidents/accidents, assigning responsibilities for nuclear and radiological safety, out-sourcing the required expertise, etc. The biggest foreseeable issue will be generating specially trained man power, with expertise in nuclear technology and radiological safety.

The public, in general are ignorant about these issues. Public Awareness Programs should aim at these issues, and the programs should be conducted nation-wide so as to mobilize public support for the nuclear technology.

India government wins Trust vote

India’s UPA government has won the much talked about trust vote to go ahead with the Indo-US nuclear deal. Now that as indicated, government can approach IAEA and Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG) and the rest will depend on how fast the US President takes it through the US Congress. Virtually, now the issue is to be handled mainly by Bush administration before the possible changes US and Indian governments next year. The benefit of winning trust vote should not be lost just because the things are not made to move at the speed required to operatioanalize the deal.

From Indian side, the required legislative changes in the Atomic Energy Act for private participation in nuclear power scenario should be done immediately. The positive response of the industrial stocks in Bombay Stock Exchange is indication of the potential overall industrial growth which is likely to occur due to the nuclear deal.

Now, the one big question in everybody's mind is: what happens to the thorium fuel cycle? The efforts put in by the scientists and engineers for years to master the thorium route for power generation should not go waste. Now that the hi-tech will be available from advanced countries, the government should pursue the thorium route with greater zeal so as to ensure long-term energy security.

Indo-US deal has become a non-issue

The political game which is being played just now is not really related with the Indo-US nuclear deal. The one-point agenda is to topple the government and try various political permutations and combinations preparatory for the next elections. The deal should not be allowed to be the casualty of the Indian dirty politics. At one point of time, BJP had no objection for the government for going ahead with the deal. Slowly everything has changed. If BJP votes against the deal, it will reflect very badly on its past image of supporting “nuclear” India.

In fact, BJP should support the deal and then fight the elections as a party with principles and national interest in focus. Let the tit-bit parties get aligned with any party. BJP Leader L.K. Advani should have a long-term vision for the country keeping in view of the energy security and climate change. The people of the country will revolt against BJP, if the party does not support the government on the nuclear issue. Congress may come back with majority in the next elections.

Multi-year IAEA Project to make Comparative Analysis of Nuclear Waste and CO2 Storage

Economists and energy planners at the IAEA have embarked upon a multi-year project that will make a comparative analysis of the storage of nuclear waste and carbon dioxide. The project is expected to be of interest to many countries investigating nuclear power while weighing mounting anxiety over climate change. The study will seek to provide information and experience about the possible advantages and disadvantages of going to fossil-based or nuclear-based power generation.

Concerns over climate change and energy security have prompted greater interest in carbon capture and storage (CCS), a technology that would reduce greenhouse gases emissions by trapping CO2 emitted by fossil fuel power plants and storing them underground, similar to the safe long-term disposal of nuclear waste generated in nuclear power plants. The project will also look at the environmental impact of storing the two waste products underground, and the potential hazards to human health.